According to an analysis by Deutsche Welle (DW), Ali Larijani, secretary-general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on the third day of the conflict that Iran had prepared itself for a long war. He reiterated the government’s position that the country would defend itself “whatever the cost.”
Since February 28, the United States and Israel have conducted coordinated military operations against Iran, focusing particularly on senior officials and strategic facilities. Tehran has retaliated by launching missiles and drones toward Israel and targets across the Persian Gulf region, including US bases. The United Arab Emirates says it has been struck by hundreds of Iranian rockets and drones in recent days.
Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said Iran had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones by March 4, accusing Tehran of indiscriminately targeting civilians.
Missile stockpiles and military capabilities
One of the key questions, according to the DW analysis, is how long Iran can maintain such a level of military activity.
At the start of the war, Israeli military estimates suggested Iran possessed about 2,500 ballistic missiles. However, that number may have declined significantly due to ongoing launches and strikes by US and Israeli forces on missile depots.
Satellite images circulating online reportedly show damage to missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad and Tabriz, including collapsed entrances to underground storage tunnels.
A weapons expert quoted by DW said it remains difficult to determine how many launch systems and missiles have been destroyed. Technological advances have made it easier to track and target mobile launchers, but the overall extent of damage to Iran’s arsenal remains unclear.
Drone production may sustain Iran’s war effort
According to leaked Russian documents cited in the DW analysis, Tehran may be able to produce around 5,000 drones per month. These drones can be launched from simple scaffolding systems that can be assembled within hours.
The relatively low cost of Iran’s drones also plays a role in the strategic equation. A Shahed-type drone reportedly costs only several thousand dollars to produce, while intercepting it with a US Patriot missile can cost up to $3 million.
An analysis by the New York Times, based on satellite images and verified videos, suggested that Iranian short-range missiles and drones damaged communications and radar structures near at least seven US military bases in the Middle East.
Civilians bear the heaviest cost
Experts say Tehran’s strategy may be to absorb military pressure and prolong the conflict, betting on endurance.
But the war is already having severe consequences for civilians. Iranian media reported that a primary school in the southern city of Minab was hit during the first day of the conflict, killing dozens of children and teachers. The United Nations described the incident as “absolutely shocking” and called for an investigation.
